Выпуск: 1.2 , Том: 2020-August , Год издания: 2020

Место издания: Albena

Nowadays petroleum industry has a clear trend of depletion of conventional resources in traditional producing regions. As countries and petroleum companies are looking for the new directions of the development there is a need for evaluation and forecast of development of regions with high petroleum potential. The research focuses on one of such regions - Easter Siberia of Russia. The region on one hand holds large resource potential that can provide base for sustainable development of the area and country in general and on the other hand present unique geological, technical, infrastructural and economical challenges. The aim of the research is to point out main directions of sustainable development of the Eastern Siberia through forecast of petroleum production. The research methodology consists in simulation modeling of oil production based on the factors such as type of petroleum, size and location of the field, plans of the state and companies. Additionally, variation evaluation of influence of economic parameters on production is conducted through sensitivity analysis, factor analysis and risk simulation As a result, main problems regarding the structure of the resource base such as a low degree of exploration, low rate of reproduction of petroleum reserves and imbalance in categories of reserves were revealed. According to the forecast, the maximum level of oil production in Eastern Siberia and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) at already discovered fields with relatively high quality reserves will amount up to 63-64 million tons per year and will be reached by 2023. Further retention of oil production in the region at a reached level until 2026 will be possible due to the active introduction of hard-to-recover reserves. The proximity of the region to the dynamically developing markets of the Asia-Pacific region creates additional favorable conditions for steady demand and high profitability of supplies of hydrocarbon resources from the eastern regions of Russia. At the same time, active cooperation with new large trade partners is the basis for export diversification, as well as achievement of structural and territorial balance of the oil and gas industry.